Situation
The client was a mid-tier confectionary manufacturer who wanted to know the impact Covid-19 would have on their core businesses and project what it meant for 2021. They also wanted to see the impact on each of their smaller businesses and develop a game plan to compete effectively against the larger players.
Approach
- Built a detailed forecasting model that looked back at history over three years (before and during Covid)
- Modeled the impact of macro, mobility, category and company related variables on sales
- Validated the results with a consumer survey to ensure that the results were aligned with consumer behavior
- Forecasted sakes for remainder of 2020 and 2021 under different Covid and economic recovery scenarios
- Provided implications for marketing strategies based upon these results
Results/Value Created
- Results indicated a fall-off in volume in 2021 after a significant increase in 2020
- There was a need for a robust e-Commerce strategy given the adoption within the category and the emphasis on this by key competitors
- A focus on new buyers that have entered the category over the past year is key to growth
- The company needed to focus on a robust marketing plan to strengthen its brands and capture consumers
